November 2, 2026

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28. Two of the twelve voters wanted a hike, and markets are now pricing in a possible increase in December.

For commercial real estate owners, the Fed rate isn't the number that matters most. Most commercial loans are priced off the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year closed back above 5% the same day the Fed held. Earlier in October it hit about 5.3%, the highest level in decades.

Here's a rough example of why that matters. Say a building has $500,000 of net operating income and the lender requires a 1.25x debt service coverage ratio on a 30-year amortization:

Same building, same income, about $1.2 million less in loan proceeds. That gap has to come from somewhere: new equity, a lower sale price, or higher NOI.

A lot of loans written between 2019 and 2022 are coming due over the next two years. The owners we're talking to generally aren't in trouble. The building is fine. The math on the refinance just doesn't work the way they planned.

If you have a loan maturing in 2027 or 2028

• Start 12 to 18 months early. Waiting until the last 90 days takes most of your options off the table.
• Get your books in order. A clean rent roll, current operating statements and a capital expenditure list make a real difference with lenders and buyers.
• Run the numbers three ways: refinance, sell, or lease up and refinance later. The answer isn't always obvious until you put them side by side.
• Look at NOI before rates. Collecting the CAM you're owed, renewing tenants early and fixing vacancy can move your loan proceeds more than waiting for rates to drop.

We help owners work through these decisions on both the brokerage and property management side. If you have a maturity coming up, it's worth a conversation sooner rather than later.